The Republican Dilemma

by Ron Giusti, Political Writer

George W. Bush has left the Republican Party discredited in the eyes of most voters.  A scary economic meltdown, two grinding wars and a largely ineffective executive branch have elected Barack Obama President.  In addition, the circumstances surrounding Obama’s election and the huge racial barrier which he has broken give him a tremendous reservoir of goodwill upon which to draw.

Faced with economic and foreign crisis, most Americans will rally around Obama once he becomes president.  For the moment at least he embodies hope for a nation craving serious leadership.  With his likable manner and charisma any success Obama achieves in mastering the economic mess or successfully disengaging from Iraq could send his popularity into the stratosphere.  One senses that whatever happens, Barack Obama will be a force to be reckoned with.

Meanwhile the Republican Party faces the future from a very vulnerable position.  The Republican base of white married conservatives and a few scattered libertarians is no longer large enough to keep the GOP competitive in national elections.  In 2000 and 2004 Bush won close presidential elections by turning out his evangelical base in swarms along with just enough moderates and independents to make it over the finish line.  However, this year the American center moved decisively toward the Democrats, leaving the Republicans with only their shrinking socially conservative base.

During the election campaign, Sarah Palin with her charisma and effortless charm electrified the evangelical core of the Republican Party, because in both background and values she came to personify the voters which comprise that core.   Palin gave the McCain effort some badly needed sizzle.   However the thousands who thronged to see her and roared their approval were the true believers.  Neither McCain nor Palin brought anyone new to the party; they held the base and little else. 

As the United States rapidly becomes both more diverse and more Hispanic there simply will not be enough white married Christians left in the United States to keep the Republicans viable.  In the last election, Hispanic voters surged to the Democrats giving Obama about 70% of their votes (In 2004 the Democrats received about 56% of this vote) while the crucial suburban vote in the swing states also moved toward the Democratic Party.    According to exit polls, an increasingly Democratic Hispanic vote explains Obama’s wins in Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico - all states that Bush won in 2004.  It is estimated that between 9.6 million and 11 million Latinos voted in 2008 compared with 7.6 million in 2004. 

Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker sums up the Republican problem:

“It isn’t necessary to surrender Judeo-Christian values or diminish the value of faith in America.  Belief in something greater than oneself has much to recommend it.  But, like it or not, we are a diverse nation, no longer predominantly white and Christian.  The change Barack Obama promised has already occurred, which is why he won.”

In addition, the wedge issues (abortion, guns, gays and Patriotism) which Republicans have traditionally used to rally their evangelical base now lack relevancy for most voters.  With the economy teetering on the brink of depression and our military bogged down in grinding wars using the old “family values” issues to get votes seems both dated and trivial.  These days people are worried about keeping their job, their medical insurance or the roof over their heads.  

 Using a page from this old playbook Sarah Palin repeatedly told voters that Obama was a guy who “paled around with terrorists.”  Except for hard core supporters, few voters really listened. 

So the Republican Party faces a real conundrum.  It must figure out a way to expand its appeal in a more diverse nation without simultaneously alienating the evangelical voters that form its base vote.  The old game plan no longer works. Republicans must think anew. 

It is worth noting that the Republican mantra of hard work, responsibility and entrepreneurship has much in it that appeals to the values of Hispanic voters.  However, to attract these new voters, Republicans have to combine their support of border security with support for a path toward legalization.  It’s hard to get votes from citizens who believe you want to ship their relatives back across the border.

To stay competitive, Republican leaders will also have to develop serious proposals concerning those things voters are currently worried about, such as dwindling health insurance availability, a mortgage and housing crisis, growing unemployment, a sky rocketing national debt, a declining industrial base and a financial system which is at risk.  These are issues that concern all voters, Christian and non-Christian alike.  In short, to stay in the game the Republican Party has to look like it cares about what’s happening now.  Otherwise it risks becoming a minority party left with pockets of strength in the deep South, Appalachia and the more thinly populated western states.  To survive, the GOP must move beyond the culture wars.