Can McCain Pull It Off?

by Ron Giusti, Political Writer

It should be Political Science 101, as inevitable as the correct answer to any basic math problem. The price of gas and food climb steadily, the value of homes drop, credit gets tighter, pensions become a thing of the past, college gets harder to save for and affordable health insurance is less and less available for many. All these things are coupled with an unpopular President, conducting an unpopular war while 81% of the country thinks we’re going in the wrong direction. If the past is any guide all these things should equal an inevitable defeat for the Republican presidential candidate.

However, the Republican Party has, almost by accident, nominated the strongest candidate it possibly could have. Patriot, war hero, independent and not afraid to say what he really thinks, McCain’s qualities resonate with many voters who are not Republicans. Despite an unfavorable political environment, polls show the Senator is running slightly behind or even with Obama. In a year that should be a disaster for them, John McCain gives Republicans a chance at holding the White House.

The attitude of bitterness, grievance, anger and victimization with which Senator Clinton conducted her campaign (she did at least end it with a very classy speech endorsing Obama) has left many of her older, female supporters feeling embittered and cheated by Obama’s upcoming nomination. In addition McCain’s image as a strong patriotic leader, he will have real appeal in the socially conservative blue collar areas of the Midwest and Border States where Obama did so poorly against Hillary Clinton.

Many lower income white Democrats remain tentative about Barack Obama, wondering who he really is and also if he is a genuine part of the American mainstream. This is why Jeremiah Wright and the Bitterness comment are pure poison for Obama’s campaign. McCain on the other hand, as a crusty older war hero, is a type they both understand and respect. This difference in how the two candidates are perceived by white blue collar voters is the key thing that gives McCain his chance at holding the White House for the Republicans.

However, to pull off a win McCain needs to do a few things…

One of McCain’s strengths is that he is still seen as something of a maverick, who will stand up to the Washington insider power structure. To keep this image intact, he should get ride of the lobbyists who run much of his campaign. Guys like Charlie Black should get the boot. Otherwise McCain will be stepping on his own message.

Because of his strong support for both the war in Iraq and the Administration’s tax cuts, McCain is in danger of being viewed as George Bush with a war record. Obama has already started describing a McCain victory as a third term for George Bush. And the Democrats can be expected to pound this theme home from now until the day of the election. McCain must find some way of disassociating himself from a deeply unpopular President. This will be McCain’s toughest challenge, as he has voted with President Bush 95% of the time. However, failure to create some real distance will cost McCain the election.

With the economic situation growing grimmer by the day, McCain must develop an understandable set of economic proposals that sound believable and offer relief for every day people struggling to survive. His main interest has always been international affairs. Now the Senator will have to learn how to talk about the economy with conviction and compassion that is not faked. McCain, born into an aristocratic Navy family filled with Admirals and married to an elegant heiress, must learn to exude genuine concern for that shift worker in Parma, Ohio who just got laid off.

The other way for McCain to connect with conservative Democrats is to stress again and again his national security credentials while bringing up the subject of Iraq as little as possible. Voters already know he supports the war, so there is no need to keep reminding them of that fact. The national security stuff is his strongest card against Obama, a candidate whose youth and newness have raised doubts with some voters about his ability as President to protect the nation.

The amazing story of Obama’s rise from the South Side of Chicago carries a tremendous emotional power. And his actual nomination in Denver will probably be electric. McCain must counter that story with his own military biography, which reflects courage, sacrifice and honor.

There is one thing McCain should tone down a bit. Throughout the campaign McCain’s attitude toward Obama has been one of barely concealed contempt. This was evident when McCain stated that as someone who had “chosen not to serve” in the military Obama had no right to criticize McCain’s senate vote against the new G. I. Bill.

It’s clear that McCain regards Obama as a man who has absolutely no qualifications for the office of President. Al Gore had the same opinion of George Bush and wasn’t afraid to let it show in their first debate. This more than the screw up in Florida may have been what really cost Gore the 2000 election. Voters like to think that the question of who is qualified for the Presidency is their decision to make. Obama’s success in securing the Democratic nomination is a truly historic achievement. Continuing to treat him like an errant mess steward can only hurt McCain and make it that much easier for the Democrats to get a record turn out in African American precincts.

In addition, such an attitude on McCain’s part could lead him to make the classic mistake of underrating an opponent. Hillary did this early on and paid the price. Obama’s campaign came from nowhere to out maneuver and beat a political organization that was considered invincible by many.

McCain’s reputation for character, strength and courage give him a real shot during a year that would ordinarily be considered a slam dunk for the Democrats. However, to pull it off, John McCain will have to do a lot of things just right and he will need the Goddess of Fortune to smile upon him just a bit.